If built, the proposed Pebble Mine would be North America's largest gold and copper mine. It is located on Alaska state land in Southwest Alaska, near Lake Iliamna and Lake Clark. This proposal has been very controversial in Alaska in large part because the mine would sit in the headwaters of some of the most productive salmon rivers in the world. This project is being undertaken by the Pebble Limited Partnership, which is owned by Northern Dynasty Minerals and Anglo American. While this proposal is still in the planning and pre-permitting stages, the general outline of the plan consists of a large open pit mine, a similarly large underground mine, and the impoundment of billions of tons of mining waste behind several earthen dams.
Proponents argue that the mine will create jobs in the region and tax revenue for the state of Alaska, and that it is impossible to oppose a project before final plans are drawn up. Opponents argue that the mine would negatively impact the entire Bristol Bay watershed regardless of design details, and create an unacceptable risk to fisheries downstream forever.
The Pebble prospect is located in an area of wet tundra surrounded by low, rounded mountains approximately 16 miles west of the village of Nondalton. It sits on a drainage divide between Upper Talarik Creek and the Koktuli River, which form the headwaters of two separate rivers draining into Bristol Bay. Frying Pan Lake, located in a proposed tailings storage area at the Pebble site, drains into the Koktuli River, which then joins the Mulchatna and finally the Nushagak River. The Nushagak empties into Bristol Bay near the town of Dillingham. Upper Talarik Creek drains into Lake Iliamna, which empties into Bristol Bay through the Kvichak River. The communities of Nondalton, New Stuyahok, Ekwok, Dillingham, King Salmon, Levelock, Igiugig, Newhalen, Iliamna, Pedro Bay, and Kokhonak lie in the region of the proposed mine, and many are directly downstream of the Pebble site. This site is also surrounded by other mining claims.
The proposal for Pebble Mine is being put forward by the Pebble Limited Partnership which is 50% owned by a subsidiary of Anglo American (United Kingdom) and 50% owned by the Northern Dynasty Partnership which is a subsidiary of Northern Dynasty Minerals Limited (Canada). Two of the major shareholders in Northern Dynasty Minerals are Rio Tinto (United Kingdom/Australia) and Mitsubishi (Japan).
The mineral prospect includes two distinct areas, Pebble West and Pebble East. Pebble West is relatively shallow, and would be a massive open-pit mine, almost two miles wide and a few thousand feet deep. The ore in Pebble East is much deeper beneath the surface and would be mined using block caving. This process involves mining the deposit from the bottom upwards, collapsing the ground into the cavity left behind. These mines would use all of the water from the upper reaches of Talarik Creek and the Koktuli River.
The Pebble mine would generate billions of tons of waste rock and mine tailings which would need to be stored "in perpetuity" to prevent acid mine drainage. The current plan is to store this waste underwater behind a series of massive earthen dams, the largest being over four miles long and 700 feet high. The mine is expected to require around 300 MW of power (for comparison, Alaska's entire rail-belt grid consumes 600 MW average load and 800 MW at peak load) which would either come from as-of-yet undiscovered reserves of natural gas nearby, a spur from the proposed Alaskan natural gas pipeline, or by importing liquefied natural gas.
No official plans or feasibility studies exist for the mine, but the Pebble Partnership hopes to have both of these by the end of 2010 and to begin applying for permits in 2011. However, this timeline has been pushed back many times in the last several years. Further studies and exploration in 2010 are expected to cost over $70 million.
Turning our backs on the drill rigs, we followed the meanders of the Koktuli River as it turned away from the potential tailings lake and headed out between the hills. Over the next several days, we let the wind and the current carry us down from the Koktuli, to the Mulchatna, to the Nushagak, along an ever-growing river. From open tundra, the river led us through scraggly willows into a forest of spruce and cottonwood. Eagles perched on the tops of the tallest trees, attempting to look regal as they fought the buffeting wind. Swallows zoomed in and out of their homes in the bluff, bringing home a new mosquito for their offspring every few seconds, but somehow never exhausting the buzzing supply. Arctic terns dive-bombed us in the cotton grass fields, protecting their nests.
All metal sulfide mines generate waste (in the form of finely ground tailings and broken up rock) capable of producing sulfuric acid when exposed to air. Because of its large size, Pebble Mine would have this problem on a massive scale. Both the waste rock and mine tailings will need to be kept underwater forever to prevent acid mine drainage. The most recent proposals call for at least four large earthen dams, effectively replacing two valleys with large lakes. Depending on how the waste is processed and stored, these may or may not require water treatment in perpetuity. One of the biggest concerns is regarding the risk of earthquakes in the area that could damage a tailings dam, potentially contaminating a large potion of the Bristol Bay watershed with acid runoff. Even without a catastrophic failure, most large mines of this nature have contaminated downstream waters just through normal operation. Because the landscape around Pebble is covered in loose sediment hundreds of feet thick, it will be difficult to prevent contaminated water from leaking out beneath dams and even crossing between watersheds.
Not all mines produce acid mine drainage, and Pebble has pointed to the historic Kennecott Copper Mine as an example of how copper can be mined without this problem. However, the size, hydrology, and geology of the deposits are very different.
While the Pebble developers have not specified the techniques that will be used for ore processing at the mine, many gold mines (particularly those mining low-grade ore like what is found at Pebble) use a technique called cyanide leach mining or gold cyanidation. This process uses highly toxic cyanide to extract the gold ore after which the cyanide and its derivates are stored along with the other mining waste. While the cyanide itself breaks down into other compounds relatively quickly, the composition and toxicity of these products is not well understood. Failures of tailings dams containing cyanide can be a massive environmental problem, resulting in the sterilization of large areas downstream. In 2000 a tailings dam failure in Romania dumped an estimated 100 tons of cyanide into a river system and contaminated drinking water and killed fish up to 250 miles downstream with effects lasting for years.
Any large tailings dam that needs to be maintained in perpetuity presents a risk to downstream ecosystems. In the case of a remote mine like Red Dog in northern Alaska a dam failure would be a local ecological disaster and would displace at least a few downstream villages. Relative to this possible catastrophe, a dam failure at the Pebble Mine site would be far worse. The Pebble site is at the headwaters of the productive Bristol Bay watershed. The waters downstream of Pebble contain all five species of Pacific salmon, pike, several types of trout, char, and whitefish. Sport, commercial, and subsistence fishing are critical components of the economy and livelihoods of Bristol Bay and much of the debate about Pebble Mine centers around the potential impact on these fisheries (see Economics). Bristol Bay is the largest commercial sockeye salmon fishery in the world, with a run size of 42 million fish in 2008.
Northern Dynasty maintains that it has a "no net loss" policy for fisheries in the area which would mean than any loss of productivity would be theoretically compensated for in some other way. This might include capturing and relocating fish, removing beaver dams and other obstacles to spawning access, or building hatcheries. It is unclear whether all of these measures are beneficial to salmon over the long term, and destroying some salmon runs and replacing them with enhancement of other runs reduces diversity and impacts the robustness of the population. This no net loss policy could possibly mitigate some of the inevitable direct negative effects of mining on the local salmon populations, but could never begin to address a large scale tailing dam failure. These direct effects that Pebble would seek to mitigate include destruction of salmon spawning habitat near the mine, an increase in "total dissolved solids" downstream of the mine, and the release of metal compounds that can interfere with the homing mechanism of salmon.
In addition to the mine-related environmental effects, the mine itself would have a very significant environmental footprint. Pebble Mine would be a massive industrial project employing 1000 workers and using more power than the entire Kenai Peninsula. Development of the mine would bring many miles of roads and bridges, transmission lines, and pipelines into an undeveloped area. Transport of the ore would most likely be along a private 100-mile road to a new port in Cook Inlet. All of this infrastructure would impact the surrounding ecology and the subsistence lifestyle of the majority of communities in the area. Additionally, this infrastructure could be used to support other mining projects on nearby mineral claims that could amplify the footprint of the mine.
Opposition to the Pebble project has been intense. The opposition effort is largely driven by concern over downstream impacts to fish and fisheries, with some of the most prominent opponents being local residents, commercial salmon fishermen in Bristol Bay, and sport fishermen and lodge operators in the area.
In the Bristol Bay region, where the mine would be located, most communities and governmental bodies are opposed to the project (around 20 native corporations, village councils, tribes, and cities). Notably, this includes the regional level native organizations: the Bristol Bay Native Corporation and the Bristol Bay Native Association. Supporters of the mine include the village of Iliamna, where Pebble exploration efforts are based, the Alaska Peninsula and Twin Hills Native Corporations, and the tribes of South Naknek and King Salmon.
Several Alaska-based groups exist primarily to oppose the Pebble Project, including Nunamta Aulukestai ("Caretakers of the Land"), the Renewable Resources Coalition, the Bristol Bay Alliance, Stop Pebble Mine, and Our Bristol Bay. Organizations involved in sport and commercial fishing, such as the Alaska Wilderness Recreation and Tourism Association, and the Alaska Independent Fishermen's Marketing Association have also been heavily involved. While Pebble opposition is primarily Alaska based (the prospect sits on Alaska state land), the issue has attracted a fair amount of national media attention in recent years. The national organization Trout Unlimited has been heavily involved in fighting the proposal.
Legal challenges to the Bristol Bay Area Plan (designating the site for mining) and Pebble's exploration permits have been brought by the Nondalton Tribal Council and Nunamta Aulukestai. Several bills have been brought before the legislature to protect the area, including a proposal turning the area into a game refuge, and a proposal to protect salmon spawning waters of Bristol Bay. None have passed. Both sides of the Pebble controversy spent heavily on advertising over the unsuccessful Alaska Clean Water Initiative on the 2008 ballot, which would have strictly limited pollution by new large mines. As of February 2010, Trout Unlimited is seeking "Outstanding National Resource Water" status for the Koktuli River. Similarly, the American Rivers organization has classified the Bristol Bay rivers among the country's most endangered rivers as a result of the mine proposal.
In February 2010, Northern Dynasty released new estimates of the maximum total amount of minerals within the Pebble deposits including 80 billion pounds of copper, over 100 million ounces of gold and 5.6 billion pounds of molybdenum.
Both the quantity of metal and the quality of the ore will figure into how much could be eventually mined. Therefore Northern Dynasty has published estimates of the copper resource ranging from 400 million pounds to 80.6 billion pounds depending on the geologic and economic criteria used. The amount of copper that could be recovered at this site by a large-scale mine under current economic conditions would be closer to the higher end of this range than the lower, making this one of the largest copper resources in the world. The potential recovery rates at Pebble West have been estimated at 85% for copper, 70% for gold, and 78% for molybdenum.
Based on the maximum resource recovery rates above, and the spot prices for copper ($3.1/lb), gold ($1110/oz), and molybdenum ($15/lb) in early Feb 2010; the total market value of Pebble Mine could be in the neighborhood of $400 billion.
Unfortunately for the state, metal mining returns far less tax revenue than oil and gas. For example in 2004, one tax assessment showed oil and gas extraction in the state paid about 19% of the oil and gas's market value in combined state, borough, and municipality taxes. On the other hand, metal mines paid about 2.3% of the market value of their metal in combined taxes. Another assessment for 2004 calculates these rates at 22.3% and 1.5% respectively. Using rates of 1.5%-2.3% and the market value of metal above we can estimate that the Pebble mine could pay up to $6-9.2 billion in combined taxes over the lifetime of the mine.
The Pebble Partnership describes the economic impacts of the project as:
"Responsible development of the Pebble Project will generate capital investment of between $3-5 billion, 1,000 high-skill, high-wage operations jobs for 50-80 years, 2,000 jobs during the project's 2-3-year construction phase, tens of millions of dollars in annual tax payments to state and local governments, among other spin-off benefits and business opportunities."
To estimate the total economic impact of the mine, impacts to fisheries, tourism, and other industries should be compared to these direct economic benefits of the mine. Also the chance of accidental failure of the waste storage facility needs to be considered. The annual economic value of the fisheries, hunting, and tourism industries in Bristol Bay exceeds what would be generated by the mine. Around 75% of local jobs are related to the fishing industry, with a total payroll of around $175 million. Bristol Bay alone is responsible for around 40% of the nation's salmon catch each year.
Lastly, the potential economic and environmental impacts of the mine have led a number of British and American jewelers to organize a boycott on gold coming from Pebble Mine. It is unknown what impact, if any, this would have on the economics of the mine.
In February 2010, the Pebble Partnership agreed to pay $45,000 for 45 water-related violations over the last three years of exploration. As a result of these issues, the exploration permits for the mine were suspended for a couple of months but were re-instated in April. In June 2010, a study was released demonstrating the critical importance of genetic diversity in maintaining salmon stocks in the Bristol Bay region. This has been used by opponents of the mine to argue that Pebble Mine could have an even larger negative impact on the fishery than previously assumed. In July 2010, a Superior Court ruling argued that the existing Pebble Mine exploration permits had been issued with inadequate regard for resource issues in the area.
An initiative battle began in the summer of 2011 that could adversely affect the Pebble Mine. The Lake and Peninsula borough will conducted a vote in October that would change the code to deny permits to a mining operation shown to adversely affect salmon. The Pebble Partnership sued to stop the vote, but lost both an initial ruling in Superior Court and then a later appeal to the high court. The vote succeeded, but will now be followed by a series of court battles over the legality of the measure.
By David Coil, Erin McKittrick, Bretwood Higman, Ground Truth Trekking
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Date Created: Wed, 5 May 2010 00:07:54 -0800
Last Modified: Tue, 13 Dec 2011 09:54:01 -0900
The Lake and Peninsula borough passed a measure that would block Pebble Mine but legal challenges are already underway.
The Pebble Limited Partnership will spend $91 million this year, mostly aimed at producing a pre-feasibility study by sometime next year.
A controversial preliminary assessment of the Pebble Mine proposal was released by Northern Dynasty Minerals, detailing mining scenarios for 25, 45, and 78 years of mine operation.
Twitter Updates:@GroundTruthTrek:An unexpected view from our hike today. Guess what this is? http://t.co/yB9wp0zX
@GroundTruthTrek:Town thaws. Muddy water paints over a blue-ice parking lot, creating a poor man's skate rink. http://t.co/vKkrifWm
@GroundTruthTrek:Look closely - you can just barely see our tent in the lower right corner, absolutely dwarfed by Malaspina Glacier. http://t.co/7vOGVRCK
@GroundTruthTrek:Mining road makes running the Iditarod more convenient: http://t.co/yox9Un29
@GroundTruthTrek:The cottonwood grew in silt that stood on ice. When the ice melted, the roots of the tree sunk into a... http://t.co/aJOptWrY
